Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 3.954325 4.309781 4.702935 5.174102 5.728980 6.368907 7.173700
2025-01-05 3.407485 3.855236 4.383794 5.066575 5.945545 7.070398 8.676733
2025-01-12 3.061753 3.546416 4.143007 4.953657 6.065626 7.606132 10.051037
2025-01-19 2.781918 3.273806 3.896924 4.774499 6.035909 7.894274 11.114387
2025-01-26 2.660876 3.183943 3.867102 4.867673 6.384156 8.787710 13.446810
2025-02-02 2.596406 3.157600 3.912986 5.064278 6.909681 10.083010 17.135208
2025-02-09 2.516511 3.101050 3.907622 5.179011 7.319509 11.289219 21.433952
2025-02-16 2.397312 2.980086 3.797681 5.116414 7.414658 11.920786 24.806719
2025-02-23 2.298067 2.879743 3.708433 5.074287 7.535204 12.636749 29.123189
2025-03-02 2.206933 2.784836 3.619252 5.021113 7.624090 13.309947 34.137627
2025-03-09 2.125381 2.698781 3.536806 4.969688 7.706391 13.995972 40.321371
2025-03-16 2.061320 2.634505 3.482898 4.960713 7.870491 14.949538 49.930338
2025-03-23 2.019096 2.601423 3.477088 5.038759 8.237647 16.646582 70.683658
2025-03-30 1.942358 2.512902 3.377865 4.939512 8.206431 17.171543 85.482828
2025-04-06 1.869729 2.427349 3.278548 4.831495 8.139760 17.571359 102.811262
2025-04-13 1.789294 2.326801 3.150018 4.659534 7.903955 17.331137 110.885157
2025-04-20 1.765650 2.311945 3.160204 4.748999 8.295484 19.503159 204.612409
2025-04-27 1.761447 2.326488 3.219236 4.937625 8.970712 23.333738 946.403847
2025-05-04 1.742833 2.317390 3.237577 5.047608 9.474168 27.000890 NaN
2025-05-11 1.696814 2.262985 3.175291 4.987611 9.505273 28.347990 NaN
2025-05-18 1.656662 2.216478 3.124418 4.947222 9.586279 30.105592 NaN
2025-05-25 1.617067 2.169485 3.070501 4.896229 9.629159 31.731165 NaN
2025-06-01 1.579838 2.125077 3.019156 4.846899 9.670160 33.454528 NaN